Club Leon vs Deportivo Toluca: the story of the match
12' — Club Leon took the lead: 1-0. José Alvarado scored it. 44' — Deportivo Toluca equalised: 1-1. Federico Viñas scored it. Half time: 1-1.
The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Club LeonDrawDeportivo Toluca
Pre-match model estimate: Club Leon 25%, draw 21%, Deportivo Toluca 54%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Club Leon win in 25% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Deportivo Toluca win 54%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 64%. About 11.7 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
José Alvarado opened the scoring for Club Leon after 12 minutes, set up by Ismael Díaz. Deportivo Toluca drew level at 1-1 on 44 minutes thanks to Federico Viñas, set up by Jorge Díaz. The first half ended 1-1.
What the numbers say
Corners finished 3-6. Dangerous attacks: 52 for Deportivo Toluca, 27 for Club Leon.
The bigger picture
Club Leon slip to 6th (22 points), having started the day 5th. Deportivo Toluca drop from 4th to 5th on 23 points. Club Leon have now scored in 9 consecutive matches. The wait for a win goes on for Deportivo Toluca: 6 matches now.
Liga MX, Apertura
