CD Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0.
51' — Alianza Lima took the lead: 0-1. Erick Castillo scored it. 59' — CD Los Chankas equalised: 1-1. Kelvin Sánchez scored it. After 61' the momentum swung to CD Los Chankas. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CD Los ChankasDrawAlianza Lima
Pre-match model estimate: CD Los Chankas 27%, draw 29%, Alianza Lima 44%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
CD Los ChankasAlianza Lima
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min120
Last 15 min4612
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CD Los Chankas win in 27% of the simulated matches, 29% end level and Alianza Lima win 44%. Average goals 2.2; the most likely score is 0-1 (14%); both teams score in 43%. About 9.4 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 29%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
It was CD Los Chankas 0-0 Alianza Lima at half-time.
Alianza Lima took the lead in the 51st minute: Erick Castillo. CD Los Chankas drew level at 1-1 in the 59th minute: Kelvin Sánchez. From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards CD Los Chankas.
The statistics
Corners finished 5-2.
What it means
CD Los Chankas move on to 14 points. The result takes Alianza Lima to 29 points. The wait for a win goes on for CD Los Chankas: 4 matches now. Alianza Lima have now scored in 10 consecutive matches. Across 7 meetings in our records: 5 wins for Alianza Lima and 2 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Primera Division, Clausura
