28' — Catanzaro took the lead: 1-0. Emile Dorval scored it. Half time: 1-0.
67' — Padova equalised: 1-1. Kevin Varas Marcillo scored it. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CatanzaroDrawPadova
Pre-match model estimate: Catanzaro 43%, draw 25%, Padova 32%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Catanzaro win in 43% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Padova win 32%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 56%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Catanzaro remain 20th, now with 6 points. Padova slip to 10th (14 points), having started the day 8th. The wait for a win goes on for Catanzaro: 6 matches now. Padova have now scored in 4 consecutive matches. Across 6 meetings in our records: 1 win for Catanzaro, 3 wins for Padova and 2 draws.
Coming up
Catanzaro visit Cesena FC next, on 7 November in Serie B. Next up for Padova: home to Empoli FC on Saturday 7 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie B
