CA Colegiales vs Atletico Rafaela: the story of the match
38' — Atletico Rafaela took the lead: 0-1. Fernando Ponce scored it. Half time: 0-1.
81' — CA Colegiales equalised: 1-1. Nicolás Toloza scored it. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CA ColegialesDrawAtletico Rafaela
Pre-match model estimate: CA Colegiales 57%, draw 28%, Atletico Rafaela 15%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CA Colegiales win in 57% of the simulated matches, 28% end level and Atletico Rafaela win 15%. Average goals 2.0; the most likely score is 1-0 (19%); both teams score in 34%. About 8.9 corners on average. About 4.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 27%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Atletico Rafaela took the lead in the 38th minute: Fernando Ponce. Atletico Rafaela led 1-0 at the break.
CA Colegiales drew level at 1-1 on 81 minutes thanks to Nicolás Toloza.
What the numbers say
On target it was 3-4, from 5 and 5 attempts respectively. CA Colegiales won 6 corners, Atletico Rafaela 5. CA Colegiales produced 83 dangerous attacks to Atletico Rafaela's 52.
What it means
CA Colegiales drop from 7th to 8th on 51 points. Atletico Rafaela stay 11th on 46 points. CA Colegiales' run of 3 clean sheets is over.
Primera B Nacional
