41' — Real Madrid took the lead: 0-1. Kylian Mbappé scored it. Half time: 0-1.
61' — Barcelona equalised: 1-1. Raphinha scored it. 87' — Real Madrid went back in front: 1-2. Kylian Mbappé scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Real Madrid won 1-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
BarcelonaDrawReal Madrid
Pre-match model estimate: Barcelona 53%, draw 19%, Real Madrid 28%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Barcelona win in 53% of the simulated matches, 19% end level and Real Madrid win 28%. Average goals 4.3; the most likely score is 2-1 (8%); both teams score in 76%. About 9.4 corners on average. About 4.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 27%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Barcelona – Real Madrid match report
Updated:
Real Madrid snatched a late 2-1 win over Barcelona, Kylian Mbappé scoring the winner in the 87th minute. Kylian Mbappé scored twice for Real Madrid. The half-time score was 0-1. 62,055 spectators were at Spotify Camp Nou.
Key moments
Real Madrid took the lead on 41 minutes thanks to Kylian Mbappé. Half-time: 0-1, Real Madrid in front.
Barcelona drew level at 1-1 on 61 minutes thanks to Raphinha, set up by Pedri. Kylian Mbappé put Real Madrid 2-1 ahead after 87 minutes, set up by Eduardo Camavinga.
What the numbers say
Barcelona won 6 corners, Real Madrid 6. Barcelona produced 47 dangerous attacks to Real Madrid's 31.
What it means
Barcelona stay 1st on 27 points. Real Madrid remain 3rd, now with 24 points. Barcelona have now scored in 12 consecutive matches. Real Madrid have now won 5 in a row.
What’s next
Next up for Barcelona: home to Deportivo Alaves on Saturday 31 October. Real Madrid's next match is away to Racing Santander on 1 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
LaLiga
