Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: AD Alcorcon won 4-3.
Story
AD Alcorcon vs Real Jaen: the story of the match
AD Alcorcon started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 18' — Real Jaen took the lead: 0-1. 24' — AD Alcorcon equalised: 1-1. 41' — Real Jaen went back in front: 1-2. Half time: 1-2, with AD Alcorcon applying more of the pressure.
52' — AD Alcorcon equalised: 2-2. 62' — AD Alcorcon completed the turnaround: 3-2. 73' — AD Alcorcon extended the lead: 4-2. 87' — Real Jaen pulled one back: 4-3. It came in the closing minutes. After 76' the momentum swung to Real Jaen. AD Alcorcon won 4-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AD AlcorconDrawReal Jaen
Pre-match model estimate: AD Alcorcon 69%, draw 19%, Real Jaen 12%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
AD AlcorconReal Jaen
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min1293
Last 15 min2577
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AD Alcorcon win in 69% of the simulated matches, 19% end level and Real Jaen win 12%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 2-0 (13%); both teams score in 46%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 5.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 26%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
AD Alcorcon started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. Real Jaen took the lead on 18 minutes. AD Alcorcon drew level at 1-1 on 24 minutes. Real Jaen went 2-1 up on 41 minutes. Half-time: 1-2, Real Jaen in front.
AD Alcorcon drew level at 2-2 on 52 minutes. AD Alcorcon completed the turnaround at 3-2 on 62 minutes. AD Alcorcon extended their lead to 4-2 on 73 minutes. From the 76th minute the pressure shifted towards Real Jaen. Real Jaen pulled one back to make it 4-3 on 87 minutes.
Match statistics
The shot count read 9-5, 7-4 on target. Corners finished 7-4. Real Jaen's goalkeeper made 5 saves. Dangerous attacks: 134 for AD Alcorcon, 80 for Real Jaen.
What it means
A 4-game wait for victory is over for AD Alcorcon. Real Jaen's 5-match unbeaten run is over.
Primera Federacion, Group 2
