One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Vitoria GuimaraesKick-off0-0Porto
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Vitoria Guimaraes 0.8 – 2.0 Porto. Most frequent scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Both teams score in 47% of the simulated matches. About 9.3 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Porto snatched a late 2-1 win over Vitoria Guimaraes, Martim Fernandes scoring the winner in the 87th minute. It was 0-1 at half-time. The top ScoreMondo rating of the match went to Porto's Alberto Costa: 8.3. The match was played on Sunday, 8 November 2026 at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques in Guimarães (matchday 11).
The story of the match
The officials disallowed a Porto goal on 28 minutes. Porto took the lead on 38 minutes thanks to Borja Sainz, set up by Alberto Costa. Porto led 1-0 at the break.
Vitoria Guimaraes drew level at 1-1 in the 77th minute through Alan, set up by Gustavo da Silva. Late on, in the 87th minute, Porto went 2-1 up through Martim Fernandes. Porto had a goal ruled out in the 88th minute.
What the numbers say
Corners finished 4-5. The referee showed 6 yellow cards, 2 to Vitoria Guimaraes and 4 to Porto. Vitoria Guimaraes committed 10 fouls to Porto's 10, and the offside count read 3-7.
The best ScoreMondo ratings after the player of the match went to Alan (Vitoria Guimaraes, 8.0), Pepê (Porto, 8.0) and Diogo Costa (Porto, 7.8). From the Vitoria Guimaraes bench came Alan on 64 minutes, Alioune Ndoye on 71 minutes, Miguel Nogueira on 80 minutes and Thiago Balieiro on 80 minutes, among 6 changes. Porto made 7 changes: André Silva for Pablo Rosario (58'), Alan Varela for Samu Aghehowa (58'), Martim Fernandes for Borja Sainz (58') and Hwang In-Beom for Jan Bednarek (66').
Before the match
Before kick-off Vitoria Guimaraes were 13th on 9 points and Porto 1st on 30 points. Vitoria Guimaraes came into the match with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 matches — unbeaten in 3. Vitoria Guimaraes were held 0-0 by Gil Vicente in their latest outing. Before kick-off, Porto's last 5 matches had brought 4 wins and 1 defeat. Last time out, Porto beat SSC Napoli4-1 at home. The record between them over the last 10 matches reads 2-1-7 from Vitoria Guimaraes' point of view. The last meeting, in 2026 in Liga Portugal, went 1-0 to Porto. Those 10 games produced 27 goals, an average of 2.7 per match. David Rafael Oliveira da Silva was the referee, averaging 6.4 yellow cards per match across 16 matches in our records.
What the result means
Vitoria Guimaraes slip to 14th (9 points), having started the day 13th. Porto remain 1st, now with 33 points. Vitoria Guimaraes' 3-match unbeaten run is over. That is 5 straight wins for Porto.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
