AA Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza CE: the story of the match
25' — Fortaleza CE took the lead: 0-1. Maílton dos Santos scored from the penalty spot. 44' — AA Ponte Preta equalised: 1-1. Gustavo Felipe Almeida scored it. 45' — AA Ponte Preta completed the turnaround: 2-1. Brandão scored it. Half time: 2-1.
65' — Fortaleza CE equalised: 2-2. Rodriguinho scored it. The match ended 2-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AA Ponte PretaDrawFortaleza CE
Pre-match model estimate: AA Ponte Preta 7%, draw 15%, Fortaleza CE 78%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AA Ponte Preta win in 7% of the simulated matches, 15% end level and Fortaleza CE win 78%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 0-2 (16%); both teams score in 37%. About 11.3 corners on average. About 4.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 24%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Fortaleza CE took the lead on 25 minutes thanks to Maílton dos Santos from the penalty spot. AA Ponte Preta drew level at 1-1 on 44 minutes thanks to Gustavo Felipe Almeida, set up by Danilo Barcelos. Just 1 minutes later (45') AA Ponte Preta completed the turnaround at 2-1, Brandão on target. It was AA Ponte Preta 2-1 Fortaleza CE at half-time.
Fortaleza CE drew level at 2-2 in the 65th minute: Rodriguinho, set up by Paulo Baya.
Match statistics
On target it was 6-8, from 7 and 16 attempts respectively. AA Ponte Preta won 4 corners, Fortaleza CE 9. Fortaleza CE produced 71 dangerous attacks to AA Ponte Preta's 38.
The bigger picture
AA Ponte Preta stay 20th on 15 points. Fortaleza CE remain 4th, now with 61 points. AA Ponte Preta have now gone 6 matches without a win. Fortaleza CE extend their unbeaten run to 12 matches.
Coming up
Next up for AA Ponte Preta: away at Criciuma EC on Friday 30 October. Fortaleza CE's next match is at home against Atletico Goianiense on 2 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Brasileiro Serie B
