DenmarkFootballSeason 26/27Superligaen season simulation
Model estimate FC Copenhagen — 60% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Next round | Relegation play-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen | 32 | 47.6 | 60% | 100% | 0% |
| FC Midtjylland | 32 | 46.6 | 39% | 100% | 0% |
| Viborg FF | 26 | 37.6 | 1% | 100% | <1% |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 23 | 37 | <1% | 99% | 1% |
| Brondby IF | 22 | 34 | <1% | 93% | 7% |
| Aarhus GF | 15 | 27.2 | 0% | 41% | 59% |
| Odense BK | 17 | 26.8 | 0% | 32% | 68% |
| AC Horsens | 16 | 26 | 0% | 27% | 73% |
| Silkeborg IF | 15 | 23.3 | 0% | 7% | 93% |
| Lyngby BK | 11 | 18.9 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| Randers FC | 11 | 18.8 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| SonderjyskE | 9 | 17.7 | 0% | <1% | 100% |
TitleNext roundRelegation play-offxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen | 60 | 36 | 3 | |||||||||
| FC Midtjylland | 39 | 54 | 6 | 1 | ||||||||
| Viborg FF | 5 | 39 | 35 | 17 | 3 | |||||||
| FC Nordsjaelland | 4 | 37 | 36 | 18 | 4 | |||||||
| Brondby IF | 13 | 24 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| Aarhus GF | 2 | 9 | 30 | 26 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Odense BK | 1 | 7 | 23 | 25 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| AC Horsens | 1 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 23 | 15 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| Silkeborg IF | 1 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 31 | 17 | 10 | 3 | ||||
| Lyngby BK | 2 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 30 | 25 | ||||||
| Randers FC | 2 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 31 | 28 | ||||||
| SonderjyskE | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 24 | 43 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 48 remaining matches · data version hhrq2q. 48 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.