DenmarkFootballSeason 26/27Superligaen season simulation
Model estimate FC Midtjylland — 58% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Next round | Relegation play-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 28 | 47 | 58% | 100% | <1% |
| FC Copenhagen | 26 | 45.2 | 41% | 100% | 0% |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 20 | 36.3 | 1% | 97% | 3% |
| Viborg FF | 20 | 34.5 | <1% | 93% | 7% |
| Brondby IF | 19 | 32.8 | <1% | 84% | 16% |
| AC Horsens | 16 | 28.9 | <1% | 54% | 46% |
| Aarhus GF | 12 | 26.7 | 0% | 33% | 67% |
| Odense BK | 14 | 25.9 | 0% | 22% | 78% |
| Silkeborg IF | 12 | 23.4 | 0% | 9% | 91% |
| Randers FC | 11 | 22.5 | 0% | 6% | 94% |
| Lyngby BK | 8 | 18.7 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| SonderjyskE | 8 | 17.5 | 0% | <1% | 100% |
TitleNext roundRelegation play-offxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 58 | 38 | 4 | |||||||||
| FC Copenhagen | 41 | 51 | 7 | 1 | ||||||||
| FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 7 | 41 | 27 | 15 | 6 | 2 | |||||
| Viborg FF | 3 | 27 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||||
| Brondby IF | 1 | 15 | 23 | 27 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| AC Horsens | 4 | 10 | 17 | 24 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| Aarhus GF | 1 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 22 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| Odense BK | 2 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| Silkeborg IF | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 13 | 5 | ||||
| Randers FC | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 25 | 17 | 8 | ||||
| Lyngby BK | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 32 | 34 | ||||||
| SonderjyskE | 2 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 50 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 60 remaining matches · data version 96hoii. 54 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.