FootballSeason 2026SAFF Championship season simulation
Model estimate Bangladesh — 100% title chance
Updated
Group A
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Next round |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 6 | 7.7 | 100% | 100% |
| Bhutan | 1 | 1.8 | 0% | 94% |
| Sri Lanka | 1 | 1 | 0% | 6% |
TitleNext roundxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 100 | ||
| Bhutan | 94 | 6 | |
| Sri Lanka | 6 | 94 |
Group B
Chances
TitleNext roundxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 96 | 4 | |
| Pakistan | 4 | 96 | |
| Maldives | 100 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 2 remaining matches · data version 1mp5kb.