United Arab EmiratesFootballSeason 26/27Pro League season simulation
Model estimate Al Ain Abu Dhabi — 33% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ain Abu Dhabi | 13 | 50.3 | 33% | 85% | 0% |
| Al Jazira Club Abu Dhabi | 14 | 49.1 | 25% | 80% | 0% |
| Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC | 13 | 48.1 | 18% | 76% | 0% |
| Al Wasl FC | 13 | 47.4 | 17% | 71% | 0% |
| Al Sharjah SC | 15 | 43.6 | 5% | 42% | <1% |
| Al Wahda Abu Dhabi | 12 | 40.3 | 2% | 21% | <1% |
| Al Nasr SC Dubai | 8 | 39.7 | 1% | 19% | <1% |
| Ajman Club | 9 | 35 | <1% | 5% | 2% |
| Al Ittihad Kalba | 8 | 31.6 | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Khor Fakkan FC | 7 | 26.5 | 0% | <1% | 24% |
| Baniyas UAE | 1 | 25.3 | 0% | <1% | 29% |
| Al Dhafra | 6 | 25 | 0% | <1% | 33% |
| United FC Dubai | 7 | 25.2 | 0% | <1% | 33% |
| Hatta | 3 | 19.5 | 0% | 0% | 74% |
TitleChampions LeagueRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ain Abu Dhabi | 33 | 22 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||||||
| Al Jazira Club Abu Dhabi | 25 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC | 18 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||||||
| Al Wasl FC | 17 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| Al Sharjah SC | 5 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||||
| Al Wahda Abu Dhabi | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| Al Nasr SC Dubai | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Ajman Club | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |||
| Al Ittihad Kalba | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| Khor Fakkan FC | 2 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 8 | ||||||
| Baniyas UAE | 2 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 12 | ||||||
| Al Dhafra | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 13 | ||||||
| United FC Dubai | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 13 | ||||||
| Hatta | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 22 | 52 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 137 remaining matches · data version 155ejz. 133 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.