FootballSeason 26/27Premiership season simulation
Model estimate Celtic FC — 52% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Conference League | Relegation play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic FC | 31 | 47.8 | 52% | 98% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Glasgow Rangers | 27 | 47.6 | 48% | 96% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| Falkirk FC | 21 | 36.3 | <1% | 3% | 81% | <1% | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC | 20 | 35.9 | <1% | 3% | 76% | <1% | <1% |
| FC Dundee | 17 | 29.6 | <1% | <1% | 16% | 1% | <1% |
| Dundee United | 17 | 29.2 | 0% | <1% | 13% | 2% | <1% |
| Hibernian Edinburgh FC | 11 | 25.6 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 9% | 2% |
| St. Johnstone FC | 17 | 25.9 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 8% | 1% |
| St Mirren FC | 14 | 24.3 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 18% | 4% |
| FC Motherwell | 13 | 23.4 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 21% | 5% |
| FC Aberdeen | 11 | 22.4 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 28% | 9% |
| FC Kilmarnock | 9 | 16.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 79% |
TitleChampions LeagueConference LeagueRelegation play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic FC | 52 | 46 | 2 | |||||||||
| Glasgow Rangers | 48 | 48 | 3 | |||||||||
| Falkirk FC | 3 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||||||
| Heart of Midlothian FC | 3 | 39 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| FC Dundee | 5 | 12 | 27 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dundee United | 3 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| Hibernian Edinburgh FC | 3 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 2 | |||
| St. Johnstone FC | 2 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 8 | ||||
| St Mirren FC | 4 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 4 | ||||
| FC Motherwell | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 5 | ||||
| FC Aberdeen | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 28 | 9 | ||||
| FC Kilmarnock | 2 | 5 | 13 | 79 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 57 remaining matches · data version k2986s. 57 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.