IndiaFootballSeason 26/27Indian Super League season simulation
Model estimate Mohun Bagan SG — 35% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mohun Bagan SG | 12 | 46.3 | 35% |
| SC East Bengal | 6 | 45 | 31% |
| Bengaluru FC | 10 | 44 | 21% |
| RoundGlass Punjab FC | 7 | 40.2 | 7% |
| NorthEast United FC | 11 | 39.6 | 6% |
| Mumbai City FC | 2 | 32.9 | 1% |
| Kerala Blasters FC | 5 | 29.8 | <1% |
| FC Goa | 5 | 29.3 | <1% |
| Sporting Delhi | 7 | 28.9 | <1% |
| Odisha FC | 2 | 26.4 | <1% |
| Chennaiyin FC | 5 | 25.7 | 0% |
| Churchill Brothers | 3 | 23.8 | 0% |
| Inter Kashi | 1 | 14.8 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohun Bagan SG | 35 | 26 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||||||
| SC East Bengal | 31 | 24 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||||||
| Bengaluru FC | 21 | 23 | 22 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| RoundGlass Punjab FC | 7 | 13 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| NorthEast United FC | 6 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Mumbai City FC | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Kerala Blasters FC | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 6 | |||
| FC Goa | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 7 | |||
| Sporting Delhi | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 1 | |||
| Odisha FC | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 3 | |||
| Chennaiyin FC | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 4 | ||||
| Churchill Brothers | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 29 | 9 | |||||
| Inter Kashi | 1 | 4 | 13 | 80 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 128 remaining matches · data version 1auzew. 128 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.