IndiaFootballSeason 26/27Indian Super League season simulation
Model estimate SC East Bengal — 61% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC East Bengal | 6 | 49.1 | 61% |
| RoundGlass Punjab FC | 7 | 42.9 | 14% |
| Mohun Bagan SG | 6 | 42.6 | 12% |
| Bengaluru FC | 6 | 41.2 | 9% |
| NorthEast United FC | 7 | 37.1 | 3% |
| Mumbai City FC | 2 | 35.5 | 1% |
| Kerala Blasters FC | 4 | 30.4 | <1% |
| FC Goa | 1 | 28.7 | <1% |
| Churchill Brothers | 3 | 28 | <1% |
| Odisha FC | 2 | 27.2 | <1% |
| Sporting Delhi | 0 | 22.3 | 0% |
| Chennaiyin FC | 1 | 20.6 | <1% |
| Inter Kashi | 1 | 20.3 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC East Bengal | 61 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| RoundGlass Punjab FC | 14 | 24 | 21 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Mohun Bagan SG | 12 | 24 | 23 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Bengaluru FC | 9 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| NorthEast United FC | 3 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| Mumbai City FC | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Kerala Blasters FC | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| FC Goa | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| Churchill Brothers | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 4 | |||
| Odisha FC | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 4 | |||
| Sporting Delhi | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 21 | |||||
| Chennaiyin FC | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 25 | 31 | ||||||
| Inter Kashi | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 26 | 35 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 139 remaining matches · data version gk3nni. 133 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.