EnglandFootballSeason 26/27League Two season simulation
Model estimate Barnet FC — 57% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Promotion play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet FC | 25 | 84.8 | 57% | 90% | 9% | 0% |
| Salford City | 28 | 80.7 | 28% | 75% | 20% | 0% |
| Walsall | 19 | 71.7 | 4% | 29% | 40% | <1% |
| Chesterfield FC | 19 | 70.1 | 3% | 22% | 38% | <1% |
| Fleetwood Town | 14 | 69.3 | 2% | 18% | 39% | <1% |
| Exeter City | 19 | 66.9 | 1% | 10% | 33% | <1% |
| Crewe Alexandra | 21 | 66.8 | 1% | 10% | 31% | <1% |
| Grimsby Town | 17 | 66.2 | 1% | 10% | 30% | <1% |
| Cheltenham Town | 21 | 66.1 | 1% | 9% | 28% | <1% |
| Accrington Stanley | 18 | 65.5 | 1% | 8% | 28% | <1% |
| York City FC | 20 | 65.4 | 1% | 9% | 27% | <1% |
| Tranmere Rovers | 16 | 61.2 | <1% | 2% | 14% | 2% |
| Oldham Athletic | 12 | 60.9 | <1% | 2% | 14% | 2% |
| Port Vale | 12 | 60.7 | <1% | 2% | 13% | 2% |
| Gillingham | 17 | 59.8 | <1% | 2% | 10% | 3% |
| Swindon Town | 16 | 58.3 | <1% | 1% | 7% | 4% |
| Colchester United | 12 | 57 | <1% | 1% | 6% | 5% |
| Shrewsbury Town | 18 | 54.8 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 10% |
| Northampton Town | 13 | 54.4 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 10% |
| Newport County | 15 | 53.5 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 13% |
| Bristol Rovers | 16 | 53.6 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 13% |
| Rotherham United | 12 | 51.6 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 21% |
| Rochdale | 15 | 48 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 41% |
| Crawley Town | 6 | 42.4 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 71% |
TitlePromotionPromotion play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet FC | 57 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Salford City | 28 | 32 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Walsall | 4 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Chesterfield FC | 3 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Fleetwood Town | 2 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Exeter City | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Crewe Alexandra | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Grimsby Town | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Cheltenham Town | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Accrington Stanley | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| York City FC | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||||
| Tranmere Rovers | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Oldham Athletic | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Port Vale | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| Gillingham | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| Swindon Town | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Colchester United | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| Shrewsbury Town | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 3 | ||||||
| Northampton Town | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 3 | ||||||
| Newport County | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | ||||||
| Bristol Rovers | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 5 | |||||||
| Rotherham United | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 8 | |||||||||
| Rochdale | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 22 | 19 | ||||||||||||
| Crawley Town | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 52 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 401 remaining matches · data version 1l4ghc. 388 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.