EnglandFootballSeason 26/27League One season simulation
Model estimate Huddersfield Town — 34% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Promotion play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Town | 25 | 84.6 | 34% | 53% | 37% | 0% |
| Stockport County | 23 | 81.7 | 19% | 38% | 45% | 0% |
| Bradford City | 22 | 80.3 | 13% | 27% | 50% | 0% |
| Oxford United | 22 | 80.1 | 14% | 29% | 47% | 0% |
| Luton Town | 20 | 77.9 | 8% | 19% | 47% | 0% |
| Reading | 21 | 74.4 | 4% | 10% | 38% | 0% |
| Plymouth Argyle | 22 | 74.7 | 4% | 10% | 39% | <1% |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 19 | 71.4 | 2% | 5% | 27% | <1% |
| Leicester City | 18 | 71 | 1% | 4% | 25% | <1% |
| Stevenage | 15 | 70.5 | 1% | 4% | 24% | <1% |
| Cambridge United | 21 | 64.2 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 1% |
| Notts County | 11 | 61.9 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 2% |
| Leyton Orient | 14 | 61.6 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 2% |
| Mansfield Town | 18 | 59 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 4% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 15 | 59 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 15 | 58.4 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 5% |
| Burton Albion | 17 | 56.4 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 8% |
| Doncaster Rovers | 12 | 54.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 13% |
| Peterborough United | 10 | 51.6 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 23% |
| Barnsley | 8 | 48.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 40% |
| Blackpool | 11 | 46.6 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 51% |
| Wigan Athletic | 7 | 43.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 40.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 83% |
| Bromley FC | 9 | 33.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 98% |
TitlePromotionPromotion play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Town | 34 | 20 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| Stockport County | 19 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Bradford City | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Oxford United | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Luton Town | 8 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Reading | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Plymouth Argyle | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Sheffield Wednesday | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Leicester City | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Stevenage | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Cambridge United | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Notts County | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Leyton Orient | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Mansfield Town | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Wycombe Wanderers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Milton Keynes Dons | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||
| Burton Albion | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Doncaster Rovers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||
| Peterborough United | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 4 | |||||||||||
| Barnsley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 3 | |||||||||||
| Blackpool | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 4 | ||||||||||||
| Wigan Athletic | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 22 | 19 | 8 | ||||||||||||||
| AFC Wimbledon | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 23 | 32 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||
| Bromley FC | 3 | 7 | 19 | 70 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 409 remaining matches · data version 688ent. 395 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.