Virtus Entella vs US Avellino: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 27' — Virtus Entella took the lead: 1-0. Mattia Tirelli scored it. Half time: 1-0.
90' — US Avellino equalised: 1-1. It came in the closing minutes. After 61' the momentum swung to Virtus Entella. After 91' the momentum swung to US Avellino. The match ended 1-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Virtus EntellaDrawUS Avellino
Pre-match model estimate: Virtus Entella 47%, draw 27%, US Avellino 26%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Virtus EntellaUS Avellino
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min2246
Last 15 min5342
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Virtus Entella win in 47% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and US Avellino win 26%. Average goals 2.4; the most likely score is 1-0 (14%); both teams score in 47%. About 9.4 corners on average. About 3.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 19%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Virtus Entella took the lead in the 27th minute: Mattia Tirelli. Half-time: 1-0, Virtus Entella in front.
From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards Virtus Entella. VAR disallowed a US Avellino goal on 77 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, US Avellino drew level at 1-1. US Avellino took over after the 91st minute, pinning Virtus Entella back.
The bigger picture
Virtus Entella remain 12th, now with 10 points. US Avellino slip to 9th (12 points), having started the day 8th. Across 11 meetings in our records: 2 wins for Virtus Entella, 3 wins for US Avellino and 6 draws.
Coming up
Next up for Virtus Entella: away at Sampdoria on Saturday 31 October. US Avellino's next match is at home against AC Pisa on 1 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie B
