One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
ValenciennesKick-off0-0Orleans
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Valenciennes win in 42% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and Orleans win 31%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 52%.
Goals scored per match: 0.9Goals conceded per match: 1.5
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: 2-2.
Story
Valenciennes vs Orleans: the story of the match
9' — Orleans took the lead: 0-1. R. Legendre scored it. 38' — Orleans extended the lead: 0-2. M. Lemaitre scored it. Half time: 0-2.
65' — Valenciennes pulled one back: 1-2. R. Ekra scored it. 72' — Valenciennes equalised: 2-2. J. Ndiaye scored from the penalty spot. 95' — D. Goprou of Valenciennes was sent off. The match ended 2-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
ValenciennesDrawOrleans
Pre-match model estimate: Valenciennes 42%, draw 27%, Orleans 31%.
Valenciennes and Orleans shared the points in a 2-2 draw in the Ligue 3. The half-time score was 0-2. Player of the match: T. Ndicka Matam of Orleans, with a ScoreMondo rating of 7.4. Thursday 5 November, Stade du Hainaut (Valenciennes): Valenciennes against Orleans on matchday 12, kick-off 19:45.
How the match unfolded
Orleans took the lead on 9 minutes thanks to R. Legendre, set up by T. Ndicka Matam. Orleans extended their lead to 2-0 in the 38th minute through M. Lemaitre, set up by T. Ndicka Matam. Half-time: 0-2, Orleans in front.
Valenciennes pulled one back to make it 1-2 on 65 minutes thanks to R. Ekra, set up by A. Wahib. VAR awarded Valenciennes a penalty in the 69th minute. Valenciennes drew level at 2-2 on 72 minutes thanks to J. Ndiaye from the penalty spot. D. Goprou saw a second yellow and then red in the 95th minute, leaving Valenciennes short-handed.
What the numbers say
Valenciennes had 9 shots (6 on target) to Orleans' 5 (3). Valenciennes won 6 corners, Orleans 3. A red card for Valenciennes and 7 yellows made it a bad-tempered match. Valenciennes produced 52 dangerous attacks to Orleans' 31. Fouls: 21 by Valenciennes, 12 by Orleans; offsides 5-5.
Booked for Valenciennes: A. Meite (49'), D. Goprou (55'), A. Wahib (74'), T. Marechal (77') and J. Ndiaye (87'). Orleans' yellow cards went to A. Ribeiro in the 45th minute and M. Lemaitre in the 69th minute.
Ratings and substitutions
Behind him, R. Ekra at 7.0, R. Legendre at 7.0 and M. Lemaitre at 6.7 were next in the ScoreMondo ratings. Valenciennes made 5 changes: R. Ekra for M. Rouai (58'), V. Marcel for A. Meite (58'), L. Boiteau for T. Marechal (80') and Z. Amir for D. Diomande (81'). From the Orleans bench came M. Diako on 58 minutes, M. Prunier on 76 minutes, J. Obiang on 77 minutes and M. Guiheneuf on 82 minutes, among 5 changes.
The context
The table had Valenciennes 15th (9 points) and Orleans 14th (10 points) going into the game. Before kick-off, Valenciennes' last 5 matches had brought 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. Valenciennes lost 2-1 away to AS Cannes in their last match. Orleans came into the match with 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 matches — 8 without a win. Orleans were held 1-1 by FC Villefranche Beaujolais in their latest outing. When they last met, on 31 January 2026, Orleans won 1-0. There have been 29 goals in the 10 meetings, 2.9 a game.
The bigger picture
Valenciennes stay 15th on 10 points. Orleans remain 14th, now with 11 points. Valenciennes have now gone 4 matches without a win. The wait for a win goes on for Orleans: 9 matches now. Across 11 meetings in our records: 4 wins for Valenciennes, 6 wins for Orleans and 1 draw.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
