Stade Rennais vs Lille OSC: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 25' — Lille OSC took the lead: 0-1. Soriba Diaoune scored it. 31' — Stade Rennais equalised: 1-1. Boulaye Dia scored it. Half time: 1-1, with Stade Rennais applying more of the pressure.
68' — Lille OSC went back in front: 1-2. Nathan Ngoy scored it. Lille OSC won 1-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Stade RennaisDrawLille OSC
Pre-match model estimate: Stade Rennais 43%, draw 26%, Lille OSC 31%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Stade RennaisLille OSC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min5822
Last 15 min6615
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Stade Rennais win in 43% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Lille OSC win 31%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 55%. About 8.9 corners on average. About 3.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 13%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Lille OSC took the lead on 25 minutes thanks to Soriba Diaoune. Stade Rennais drew level at 1-1 on 31 minutes thanks to Boulaye Dia, set up by Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal. The first half ended 1-1, with Stade Rennais the side applying more pressure.
Lille OSC went 2-1 up on 68 minutes thanks to Nathan Ngoy, set up by Soriba Diaoune.
The statistics
The shot count read 11-4, 3-3 on target. Stade Rennais won 7 corners, Lille OSC 2. Stade Rennais produced 67 dangerous attacks to Lille OSC's 33.
The bigger picture
Stade Rennais drop from 5th to 8th on 16 points. Lille OSC stay 2nd on 21 points. Lille OSC extend their unbeaten run to 4 matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Ligue 1
