Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Squad status
Line-ups not announced yet. Official line-ups are usually announced about 1 hour before kick-off.
No injured or suspended players reported for this match (checked ).
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Araz Nakhchivan won 0-6.
Story
Simal FK vs Araz Nakhchivan: the story of the match
Araz Nakhchivan started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 11' — Araz Nakhchivan took the lead: 0-1. Half time: 0-1.
51' — Araz Nakhchivan extended the lead: 0-2. 52' — Araz Nakhchivan extended the lead: 0-3. 70' — Araz Nakhchivan extended the lead: 0-4. 86' — Araz Nakhchivan extended the lead: 0-5. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Araz Nakhchivan extended the lead: 0-6. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to Araz Nakhchivan. Araz Nakhchivan won 0-6. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Simal FKDrawAraz Nakhchivan
Pre-match model estimate: Simal FK 17%, draw 18%, Araz Nakhchivan 65%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Simal FKAraz Nakhchivan
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min2286
Last 15 min1577
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Simal FK win in 17% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and Araz Nakhchivan win 65%. Average goals 3.7; the most likely score is 1-2 (9%); both teams score in 64%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Araz Nakhchivan started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. Araz Nakhchivan took the lead on 11 minutes. The officials disallowed a Araz Nakhchivan goal on 34 minutes. It was Simal FK 0-1 Araz Nakhchivan at half-time.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards Araz Nakhchivan. Araz Nakhchivan extended their lead to 2-0 on 51 minutes. Araz Nakhchivan extended their lead to 3-0 on 52 minutes. Araz Nakhchivan extended their lead to 4-0 on 70 minutes. Late on, in the 86th minute, Araz Nakhchivan extended their lead to 5-0.
Araz Nakhchivan had a goal ruled out in the 87th minute. Just 3 minutes later (90') Araz Nakhchivan extended their lead to 6-0.
What the numbers say
On target it was 6-13, from 6 and 15 attempts respectively.
What the result means
Simal FK's 3-match unbeaten run is over. A 9-game wait for victory is over for Araz Nakhchivan.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Cup
