Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Sariyer beat Ayvalikgucu Belediyespor 1-0 in Turkish Cup.
Match decisions & VAR
21'Goal disallowedSariyerDecision · Score 0-0
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Sariyer won 1-0.
Story
Sariyer vs Ayvalikgucu Belediyespor: the story of the match
Sariyer started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with Sariyer applying more of the pressure.
84' — Sariyer took the lead: 1-0. Sariyer won 1-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
SariyerDrawAyvalikgucu Belediyespor
Pre-match model estimate: Sariyer 75%, draw 16%, Ayvalikgucu Belediyespor 9%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
SariyerAyvalikgucu Belediyespor
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min7522
Last 15 min5315
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Sariyer win in 75% of the simulated matches, 16% end level and Ayvalikgucu Belediyespor win 9%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 2-0 (12%); both teams score in 49%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from Sariyer, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Sariyer had a goal ruled out in the 21st minute. The first half ended 0-0, with Sariyer the side applying more pressure.
Sariyer took the lead on 84 minutes.
The statistics
Corners finished 7-0. Sariyer produced 90 dangerous attacks to Ayvalikgucu Belediyespor's 37.
What it means
Sariyer end a run of 4 matches without a win. Ayvalikgucu Belediyespor's run of 3 matches with a goal comes to an end.
Coming up
Sariyer's next match is away to Vanspor FK on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Turkish Cup
