San Antonio FC vs Orange County SC: the story of the match
15' — San Antonio FC took the lead: 1-0. Emil Cuello scored it. Half time: 1-0.
59' — San Antonio FC extended the lead: 2-0. Cristian Parano scored it. 87' — Orange County SC pulled one back: 2-1. Christopher Hegardt scored it. It came in the closing minutes. San Antonio FC won 2-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
San Antonio FCDrawOrange County SC
Pre-match model estimate: San Antonio FC 55%, draw 24%, Orange County SC 21%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): San Antonio FC win in 55% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Orange County SC win 21%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-0 (12%); both teams score in 50%. About 9.3 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
San Antonio FC took the lead on 15 minutes thanks to Emil Cuello. Half-time: 1-0, San Antonio FC in front.
San Antonio FC extended their lead to 2-0 on 59 minutes thanks to Cristian Parano. Late on, in the 87th minute, Orange County SC pulled one back to make it 2-1 through Christopher Hegardt.
Match statistics
San Antonio FC had 5 shots (3 on target) to Orange County SC's 3 (3). Corners finished 5-2. Dangerous attacks: 169 for San Antonio FC, 102 for Orange County SC.
USL Championship
