Phoenix Rising FC vs Lexington SC: the story of the match
11' — Phoenix Rising FC took the lead: 1-0. Ihsan Sacko scored it. 29' — Phoenix Rising FC extended the lead: 2-0. Gunnar Studenthofft scored it. 45' — Lexington SC pulled one back: 2-1. Phillip Goodrum scored it. Half time: 2-1.
53' — Phoenix Rising FC extended the lead: 3-1. An own goal by Phillip Goodrum. 66' — Lexington SC pulled one back: 3-2. Braudílio Rodrigues scored it. 77' — Lexington SC equalised: 3-3. Aaron Molloy scored it. The match ended 3-3.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Phoenix Rising FCDrawLexington SC
Pre-match model estimate: Phoenix Rising FC 44%, draw 24%, Lexington SC 32%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Phoenix Rising FC win in 44% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Lexington SC win 32%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 62%. About 9.4 corners on average. About 3.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Phoenix Rising FC took the lead in the 11th minute: Ihsan Sacko. Phoenix Rising FC extended their lead to 2-0 in the 29th minute: Gunnar Studenthofft. Lexington SC pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 45 minutes thanks to Phillip Goodrum. It was Phoenix Rising FC 2-1 Lexington SC at half-time.
The officials disallowed a Lexington SC goal on 47 minutes. Just 6 minutes later (53') Phoenix Rising FC extended their lead to 3-1, an own goal from Phillip Goodrum on target. Lexington SC pulled one back to make it 3-2 in the 66th minute: Braudílio Rodrigues. Aaron Molloy equalised for Lexington SC at 3-3 after 77 minutes.
The statistics
Phoenix Rising FC had 5 shots (1 on target) to Lexington SC's 5 (3). Corners finished 7-5. Dangerous attacks: 168 for Lexington SC, 134 for Phoenix Rising FC.
What it means
Phoenix Rising FC have now scored in 4 consecutive matches. Lexington SC are now unbeaten in 7 matches.
USL Championship
