Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Oxford City FC beat Merthyr Town FC 3-0 in National League North.
Venue: RAW Charging Stadium.
In our records Oxford City FC and Merthyr Town FC have met 2 times: Oxford City FC won 0, 1 ended level and Merthyr Town FC won 1.
Their latest meeting (): Merthyr Town FC 1-1 Oxford City FC.
Match decisions & VAR
16'Goal disallowedOxford City FCDecision · Score 0-0
31'Goal disallowedOxford City FCDecision · Score 1-0
70'Goal disallowedOxford City FCDecision · Score 1-0
92'Penalty awardedMerthyr Town FCDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Oxford City FC won 3-0.
Story
Oxford City FC vs Merthyr Town FC: the story of the match
Oxford City FC started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 19' — Oxford City FC took the lead: 1-0. Half time: 1-0, with Oxford City FC applying more of the pressure.
78' — Oxford City FC extended the lead: 2-0. 83' — Oxford City FC extended the lead: 3-0. After 46' the momentum swung to Merthyr Town FC. After 61' the momentum swung to Oxford City FC. After 91' the momentum swung to Merthyr Town FC. Oxford City FC won 3-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Oxford City FCDrawMerthyr Town FC
Pre-match model estimate: Oxford City FC 59%, draw 20%, Merthyr Town FC 21%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Oxford City FCMerthyr Town FC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min1246
Last 15 min5731
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Oxford City FC win in 59% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Merthyr Town FC win 21%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 61%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from Oxford City FC, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Oxford City FC had a goal ruled out in the 16th minute. Just 3 minutes later (19') Oxford City FC took the lead. The officials disallowed a Oxford City FC goal on 31 minutes. It was Oxford City FC 1-0 Merthyr Town FC at half-time; Oxford City FC had the better of the pressure.
Merthyr Town FC took over after the 46th minute, pinning Oxford City FC back. From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards Oxford City FC. Oxford City FC had a goal ruled out in the 70th minute. Oxford City FC extended their lead to 2-0 on 78 minutes. Just 5 minutes later (83') Oxford City FC extended their lead to 3-0.
Match statistics
On target it was 10-3, from 15 and 6 attempts respectively. Oxford City FC won 12 corners, Merthyr Town FC 6.
What the result means
The result lifts Oxford City FC to 1st with 27 points, up from 2nd. Merthyr Town FC drop from 17th to 19th on 15 points. Oxford City FC extend their unbeaten run to 8 matches. Merthyr Town FC have now gone 8 matches without a win.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
National League North
