Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
IraqKick-off0-0Lebanon
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Iraq 1.8 – 0.7 Lebanon. Most frequent scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Both teams score in 41% of the simulated matches.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
IraqLebanon
Lebanon: the stronger side on our resultsLEstrong
Iraq: home advantage in this competitionIRstrong
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Over the last 5 matches, Iraq have collected 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. Saudi Arabia beat Iraq 2-0 last time out. At home, Iraq have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 matches, with a goal tally of 6-9. Across 10 matches, Iraq have scored 0.8 and let in 2.2 goals per match on average.
Recent form for Lebanon: 2 wins and 3 defeats in 5, with 11 goals for and 7 against. Lebanon lost 3-1 away to Kyrgyzstan in their last match. Lebanon's recent away record reads 3 wins and 2 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 5. Lebanon have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
Previous meetings
The record between them over the last 5 matches reads 2-3-0 from Iraq's point of view. The last meeting, in 2022, finished 1-1. Iraq are unbeaten in the last 5 meetings with Lebanon.
International Friendlies
