Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 21' — Fleetwood Town took the lead: 1-0. Aaron Loupalo-Bi scored it. Half time: 1-0, with Arsenal applying more of the pressure.
50' — Arsenal equalised: 1-1. Viktor Gyökeres scored it. 85' — Max Dowman of Arsenal was sent off. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Fleetwood TownDrawArsenal
Pre-match model estimate: Fleetwood Town 2%, draw 7%, Arsenal 91%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Fleetwood TownArsenal
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3171
Last 15 min4476
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Fleetwood Town win in 2% of the simulated matches, 7% end level and Arsenal win 91%. Average goals 3.8; the most likely score is 0-3 (14%); both teams score in 33%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Fleetwood Town – Arsenal match report
Updated:
Neither Fleetwood Town nor Arsenal could find a winner in a 1-1 draw. The half-time score was 1-0. 5,002 spectators were at Highbury Stadium.
Key moments
Fleetwood Town took the lead in the 21st minute: Aaron Loupalo-Bi, set up by Harrison Neal. Half-time: 1-0, Fleetwood Town in front.
Arsenal drew level at 1-1 on 50 minutes thanks to Viktor Gyökeres. Max Dowman saw a straight red card in the 85th minute, leaving Arsenal short-handed.
Match statistics
Fleetwood Town had 3 shots (1 on target) to Arsenal's 21 (8). Fleetwood Town won 2 corners, Arsenal 5. Arsenal produced 121 dangerous attacks to Fleetwood Town's 34.
What the result means
Fleetwood Town have now scored in 6 consecutive matches. Arsenal extend their unbeaten run to 6 matches.
What’s next
Fleetwood Town's next match is at home against Bristol Rovers on 31 October. Arsenal visit Liverpool next, on 1 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
EFL Cup
