FC Atyrau vs Irtysh Pavlodar: the story of the match
14' — Irtysh Pavlodar took the lead: 0-1. Mamadou Mbodj scored it. 45' — FC Atyrau equalised: 1-1. Đorđe Pantelić scored it. Half time: 1-1.
51' — FC Atyrau completed the turnaround: 2-1. An own goal by Ruslan Yudenkov. 62' — Irtysh Pavlodar equalised: 2-2. Timur Mukhametzhanov scored it. 72' — Irtysh Pavlodar completed the turnaround: 2-3. Ruslan Yudenkov scored it. Irtysh Pavlodar won 2-3.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC AtyrauDrawIrtysh Pavlodar
Pre-match model estimate: FC Atyrau 41%, draw 27%, Irtysh Pavlodar 32%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Atyrau win in 41% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and Irtysh Pavlodar win 32%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 50%. About 8.7 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Irtysh Pavlodar took the lead on 14 minutes thanks to Mamadou Mbodj. FC Atyrau drew level at 1-1 in the 45th minute: Đorđe Pantelić. It was FC Atyrau 1-1 Irtysh Pavlodar at half-time.
FC Atyrau completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 51 minutes thanks to an own goal from Ruslan Yudenkov. Timur Mukhametzhanov equalised for Irtysh Pavlodar at 2-2 after 62 minutes. Irtysh Pavlodar completed the turnaround at 3-2 in the 72nd minute: Ruslan Yudenkov.
What the numbers say
FC Atyrau won 7 corners, Irtysh Pavlodar 2.
What the result means
FC Atyrau drop from 11th to 14th on 27 points. The result lifts Irtysh Pavlodar to 12th with 29 points, up from 14th. FC Atyrau have now scored in 4 consecutive matches. Irtysh Pavlodar end a run of 3 straight defeats. It is Irtysh Pavlodar's first win against FC Atyrau since 2019.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Premier League
