This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Fakel VoronezhAkhmat Grozny
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min2212
Last 15 min2525
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Fakel Voronezh win in 32% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and Akhmat Grozny win 41%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 50%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
From the 76th minute the pressure shifted towards Akhmat Grozny. Fakel Voronezh had a player sent off on 92 minutes: A. Gabaraev.
Match statistics
On target it was 2-3, from 2 and 4 attempts respectively. Corners finished 5-5.
What the result means
Fakel Voronezh sit 3rd on 4 points in the standings. In the table, Akhmat Grozny are 4th with 4 points. 3 defeats in a row come to an end for Akhmat Grozny. Across 3 meetings in our records: 1 win for Akhmat Grozny and 2 draws.
Coming up
Fakel Voronezh visit Rubin Kazan next, on 31 October. Next up for Akhmat Grozny: away at Dynamo Moscow on Saturday 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Russian Cup
