MVV Maastricht started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 12' — MVV Maastricht took the lead: 0-1. Thijme Verheijen scored it. Half time: 0-1, with MVV Maastricht applying more of the pressure.
71' — MVV Maastricht extended the lead: 0-2. Noa El Hamdaoui scored it. After 46' the momentum swung to Emmen. MVV Maastricht won 0-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
EmmenDrawMVV Maastricht
Pre-match model estimate: Emmen 58%, draw 22%, MVV Maastricht 20%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
EmmenMVV Maastricht
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min7894
Last 15 min9675
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Emmen win in 58% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and MVV Maastricht win 20%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 56%. About 10.6 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
MVV Maastricht beat Emmen2-0 without conceding at De Oude Meerdijk. The half-time score was 0-1.
How the match unfolded
The early pressure came from MVV Maastricht, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. MVV Maastricht took the lead on 12 minutes thanks to Thijme Verheijen. Half-time: 0-1, MVV Maastricht in front.
Emmen took over after the 46th minute, pinning MVV Maastricht back. MVV Maastricht extended their lead to 2-0 in the 71st minute: Noa El Hamdaoui.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 6-11, 5-5 on target. Emmen won 4 corners, MVV Maastricht 11. Emmen produced 210 dangerous attacks to MVV Maastricht's 187.
What the result means
Emmen drop from 5th to 6th on 25 points. The result lifts MVV Maastricht to 8th with 20 points, up from 11th. MVV Maastricht end a run of 6 matches without a win.
Eerste Divisie
