Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio FC: the story of the match
18' — Danubio FC took the lead: 0-1. Bautista Pereira scored it. Half time: 0-1.
46' — Deportivo Maldonado equalised: 1-1. Juan Martín Ginzo scored it. 90' — Deportivo Maldonado completed the turnaround: 2-1. It came in the closing minutes. Deportivo Maldonado won 2-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Deportivo MaldonadoDrawDanubio FC
Pre-match model estimate: Deportivo Maldonado 53%, draw 25%, Danubio FC 22%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Deportivo Maldonado win in 53% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Danubio FC win 22%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-0 (13%); both teams score in 49%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Danubio FC took the lead on 18 minutes thanks to Bautista Pereira, set up by B. Tomatis. Half-time: 0-1, Danubio FC in front.
Deportivo Maldonado drew level at 1-1 on 46 minutes thanks to Juan Martín Ginzo. Late on, in the 90th minute, Deportivo Maldonado completed the turnaround at 2-1.
What the numbers say
Corners finished 3-3. Dangerous attacks: 60 for Deportivo Maldonado, 45 for Danubio FC.
What the result means
Deportivo Maldonado climb from 5th to 4th on 21 points. Danubio FC slip to 13th (10 points), having started the day 12th. Deportivo Maldonado have now scored in 8 consecutive matches.
Primera Division, Clausura
