Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
About this match
Deportivo Malacateco and Aurora FC meet on in Liga Nacional.
Venue: Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía.
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Scoreno
Statisticsno
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Deportivo Malacateco (64%).
Chances to win
Model estimate
64%21%15%
Deportivo Malacateco64%Draw21%Aurora FC15%
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Preview
Deportivo Malacateco vs Aurora FC: preview
Deportivo Malacateco have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches. Deportivo Malacateco have scored in 4 matches in a row. 3 of Deportivo Malacateco's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 3. Aurora FC have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. Aurora FC have scored in 12 matches in a row. 9 of Aurora FC's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 9.
Deportivo Malacateco are in position 10 with 19 points, Aurora FC in position 8 with 22 points. A win could lift Deportivo Malacateco as high as position 8. A win could lift Aurora FC as high as position 5.
Our pre-match model estimate: Deportivo Malacateco 64%, draw 21%, Aurora FC 15%.
Table by result
Deportivo Malacateco10
A win can lift them as high as 8.
Win8–9Draw9Loss9–10
Aurora FC8
A win lifts them to 5.
A defeat can drop them as low as 9.
Win5Draw7–8Loss8–9
Some teams are level on points: goal difference decides (head-to-head in some leagues), so the order may change.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
Preparing the simulation…
Model simulation (20,000 runs): Deportivo Malacateco win in 64% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Aurora FC win 15%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-0 (12%); both teams score in 48%. About 9.8 corners on average. About 4.7 yellow cards on average; a red card in 36%.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Aurora FC arrive 8th in the standings on 22 points; Deportivo Malacateco are 10th with 19 points. Aurora FC are 3 points ahead of Deportivo Malacateco.
How they come into it
Over the last 5 matches, Deportivo Malacateco have collected 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Deportivo Malacateco have found the net in 4 straight games. Across 10 matches, Deportivo Malacateco have scored 1.1 and let in 1.1 goals per match on average.
Recent form for Aurora FC: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 5, with 10 goals for and 7 against. Aurora FC have scored in each of their last 12 matches. Goals have flowed in Aurora FC's games: 9 of the last 10 produced at least three.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Liga Nacional
