Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Cumbaya FC beat CD El Nacional Quito 2-1 in Serie B, Promotion Round.
Match decisions & VAR
87'Red cardCD El Nacional QuitoDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Cumbaya FC won 2-1.
Story
Cumbaya FC vs CD El Nacional Quito: the story of the match
20' — Cumbaya FC took the lead: 1-0. 39' — Cumbaya FC extended the lead: 2-0. Half time: 2-0.
57' — CD El Nacional Quito pulled one back: 2-1. 87' — CD El Nacional Quito had a player sent off. Cumbaya FC won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Cumbaya FCDrawCD El Nacional Quito
Pre-match model estimate: Cumbaya FC 57%, draw 22%, CD El Nacional Quito 21%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Cumbaya FC win in 57% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and CD El Nacional Quito win 21%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 54%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Serie B, Promotion Round
