This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Cuiaba ECEC Juventude RS
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min2222
Last 15 min1031
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
If this score holds
Cuiaba EC13
Cuiaba EC stay in position 13.
Position 13 whatever happens in the other matches.
Win13Draw13Loss13–14
EC Juventude RS2
EC Juventude RS stay in position 2.
Between position 2 and 3, depending on the other live matches.
Win1Draw2–3Loss3
Some teams are level on points: goal difference decides (head-to-head in some leagues), so the order may change.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
Story
Cuiaba EC vs EC Juventude RS: so far
Neither side took control in the first 12 minutes. EC Juventude RS have pressed harder over the last 15 minutes: pressure index 31 against 10. Our model right now: Cuiaba EC 26%, draw 40%, EC Juventude RS 34%.
Previous meetings and form
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Cuiaba EC win in 27% of the simulated matches, 34% end level and EC Juventude RS win 39%. Average goals 1.7; the most likely score is 0-0 (18%); both teams score in 33%. About 11.5 corners on average. About 4.7 yellow cards on average; a red card in 28%.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Cuiaba EC and EC Juventude RS are still goalless after 12 minutes. The pressure is coming from EC Juventude RS: 31 to 10 on our index over the last 15 minutes.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.