Goias EC started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with Goias EC applying more of the pressure.
90' — Goias EC took the lead: 0-1. Kadu scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Goias EC extended the lead: 0-2. It came in the closing minutes. Goias EC won 0-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Ceara SCGoias EC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min5353
Last 15 min5366
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Ceara SC win in 45% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Goias EC win 29%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 52%. About 11.7 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Goias EC started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. Half-time: 0-0 between Ceara SC and Goias EC.
VAR disallowed a Ceara SC goal on 64 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, Goias EC took the lead through Kadu. Late on, in the 90th minute, Goias EC extended their lead to 2-0.
What the numbers say
Ceara SC had 7 shots (5 on target) to Goias EC's 14 (13). Corners finished 3-8.
The bigger picture
Ceara SC remain 16th, now with 43 points. Goias EC climb from 10th to 9th on 52 points. Goias EC are now unbeaten in 4 matches.
Brasileiro Serie B
