84' — Twente took the lead: 0-1. Sondre Ørjasaeter scored it. 88' — Daouda Weidmann of Twente was sent off. 90' — Twente extended the lead: 0-2. Lucas Vennegoor Of Hesselink scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Twente won 0-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AZ AlkmaarDrawTwente
Pre-match model estimate: AZ Alkmaar 48%, draw 24%, Twente 28%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AZ Alkmaar win in 48% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Twente win 28%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 59%. About 9.8 corners on average. About 3.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The shot count read 9-13, 5-2 on target. AZ Alkmaar won 3 corners, Twente 6. 5 saves came from the Twente goalkeeper. Twente produced 178 dangerous attacks to AZ Alkmaar's 158.
What the result means
AZ Alkmaar drop from 2nd to 5th on 20 points. The result lifts Twente to 4th with 20 points, up from 5th. Twente ended AZ Alkmaar's unbeaten run of 3 matches. Twente have now scored in 12 consecutive matches.
Coming up
AZ Alkmaar's next match is away to Ajax Amsterdam on 31 October. Twente visit SBV Excelsior next, on 1 November in the Eredivisie.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Eredivisie
