Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: ASD Sambenedettese won 2-1.
Story
ASD Sambenedettese vs AS Livorno: the story of the match
8' — ASD Sambenedettese took the lead: 1-0. 12' — ASD Sambenedettese extended the lead: 2-0. Half time: 2-0.
51' — AS Livorno pulled one back: 2-1. ASD Sambenedettese won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
ASD SambenedetteseDrawAS Livorno
Pre-match model estimate: ASD Sambenedettese 36%, draw 28%, AS Livorno 36%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): ASD Sambenedettese win in 36% of the simulated matches, 28% end level and AS Livorno win 36%. Average goals 2.4; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 48%. About 9.0 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
ASD Sambenedettese took the lead on 8 minutes. Just 4 minutes later (12') ASD Sambenedettese extended their lead to 2-0. It was ASD Sambenedettese 2-0 AS Livorno at half-time.
AS Livorno pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 51 minutes.
The statistics
AS Livorno produced 140 dangerous attacks to ASD Sambenedettese's 79.
What the result means
ASD Sambenedettese extend their unbeaten run to 4 matches. AS Livorno have now gone 4 matches without a win. It is ASD Sambenedettese's first win over AS Livorno in the last 3 meetings on record.
Coming up
Next up for ASD Sambenedettese: away at AC Reggiana 1919 on Friday 30 October. AS Livorno's next match is away to AC Spezia on 28 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie C, Group B
