Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 10' — Cagliari took the lead: 0-1. M'Bala Nzola scored from the penalty spot. 15' — AS Roma equalised: 1-1. Emanuele Lulli scored it. 22' — AS Roma completed the turnaround: 2-1. Niccolò Pisilli scored it. Half time: 2-1, with AS Roma applying more of the pressure.
82' — Cagliari equalised: 2-2. Daniel Maldini scored it. 85' — AS Roma completed the turnaround: 3-2. Donyell Malen scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 87' — AS Roma extended the lead: 4-2. Rodrigo Mora scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 61' the momentum swung to Cagliari. AS Roma won 4-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AS RomaDrawCagliari
Pre-match model estimate: AS Roma 62%, draw 24%, Cagliari 14%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
AS RomaCagliari
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min075
Last 15 min3958
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AS Roma win in 62% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Cagliari win 14%. Average goals 2.3; the most likely score is 1-0 (17%); both teams score in 37%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
AS Roma – Cagliari match report
Updated:
Cagliari let a lead slip and lost 4-2 to AS Roma at Olimpico.
The story of the match
Cagliari took the lead on 10 minutes thanks to M'Bala Nzola from the penalty spot. Just 5 minutes later (15') AS Roma drew level at 1-1, Emanuele Lulli on target, set up by Nahuel Molina. AS Roma completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 22nd minute: Niccolò Pisilli. AS Roma led 2-1 at the break.
Cagliari took over after the 61st minute, pinning AS Roma back. Cagliari drew level at 2-2 on 82 minutes thanks to Daniel Maldini. Donyell Malen turned the game around for AS Roma at 3-2 after 85 minutes, set up by Daniele Ghilardi. AS Roma extended their lead to 4-2 in the 87th minute: Rodrigo Mora.
The statistics
AS Roma had 9 shots (8 on target) to Cagliari's 12 (8). AS Roma won 7 corners, Cagliari 8. AS Roma produced 39 dangerous attacks to Cagliari's 22.
What it means
AS Roma stay 3rd on 21 points. Cagliari remain 9th, now with 13 points. AS Roma extend their unbeaten run to 4 matches. Cagliari have now gone 4 matches without a win.
What’s next
AS Roma visit Udinese next, on 31 October in Serie A. Next up for Cagliari: away at Lazio on Sunday 1 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie A
