45' — AS Monaco took the lead: 1-0. Paris Brunner scored it. Half time: 1-0.
83' — AS Monaco extended the lead: 2-0. Lamine Camara scored it. 90' — AS Monaco extended the lead: 3-0. Ansu Fati scored it. It came in the closing minutes. AS Monaco won 3-0. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AS MonacoDrawFreiburg
Pre-match model estimate: AS Monaco 31%, draw 25%, Freiburg 44%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AS Monaco win in 31% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Freiburg win 44%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 57%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
A 3-0 rout: AS Monaco swept Freiburg aside at Stade Louis II. It was 1-0 at half-time. The attendance at Stade Louis II was 4,783.
Key moments
AS Monaco took the lead on 45 minutes thanks to Paris Brunner. It was AS Monaco 1-0 Freiburg at half-time.
AS Monaco extended their lead to 2-0 in the 83rd minute: Lamine Camara. Ansu Fati made it 3-0 for AS Monaco after 90 minutes.
The statistics
On target it was 7-1, from 8 and 7 attempts respectively. Corners finished 6-11. Dangerous attacks: 148 for Freiburg, 101 for AS Monaco.
The bigger picture
AS Monaco sit 6th on 6 points in the standings. In the table, Freiburg are 18th with 3 points. Freiburg's run of 8 matches with a goal comes to an end.
UEFA Conference League
