Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Al Shabab Seeb beat Neom SC 3-1 in World / AGCFF Gulf Champions League.
Venue: Al-Seeb Stadium.
Match decisions & VAR
40'Penalty awardedAl Shabab SeebDecision
42'Goal disallowedNeom SCDecision · Score 1-1
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Al Shabab Seeb won 3-1.
Story
Al Shabab Seeb vs Neom SC: the story of the match
Neom SC started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 15' — Neom SC took the lead: 0-1. 42' — Al Shabab Seeb equalised: 1-1. Half time: 1-1, with Neom SC applying more of the pressure.
56' — Al Shabab Seeb completed the turnaround: 2-1. 60' — Al Shabab Seeb extended the lead: 3-1. Al Shabab Seeb won 3-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Al Shabab SeebDrawNeom SC
Pre-match model estimate: Al Shabab Seeb 19%, draw 20%, Neom SC 61%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Al Shabab SeebNeom SC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min7178
Last 15 min4673
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Al Shabab Seeb win in 19% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Neom SC win 61%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 1-2 (10%); both teams score in 57%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from Neom SC, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Neom SC took the lead on 15 minutes. Neom SC had a goal ruled out in the 42nd minute. Al Shabab Seeb drew level at 1-1 on 42 minutes. The first half ended 1-1, with Neom SC the side applying more pressure.
Al Shabab Seeb completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 56 minutes. Just 4 minutes later (60') Al Shabab Seeb extended their lead to 3-1.
What the numbers say
On target it was 4-9, from 6 and 10 attempts respectively. Corners finished 0-7. Neom SC produced 88 dangerous attacks to Al Shabab Seeb's 24.
World / AGCFF Gulf Champions League
