Ajax Amsterdam vs Atalanta: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
87' — Ajax Amsterdam took the lead: 1-0. Tolu Arokodare scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Ajax Amsterdam extended the lead: 2-0. It came in the closing minutes. Ajax Amsterdam won 2-0. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Ajax AmsterdamDrawAtalanta
Pre-match model estimate: Ajax Amsterdam 33%, draw 25%, Atalanta 42%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Ajax Amsterdam win in 33% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Atalanta win 42%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 57%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Ajax Amsterdam – Atalanta match report
Updated:
Atalanta failed to score as Ajax Amsterdam won 2-0 in the UEFA Conference League. The half-time score was 0-0. 51,739 spectators were at Johan Cruijff Arena.
The story of the match
Ajax Amsterdam had a goal ruled out in the 27th minute. The first half ended 0-0.
Ajax Amsterdam took the lead in the 87th minute: Tolu Arokodare, set up by Youri Baas. Just 3 minutes later (90') Ajax Amsterdam extended their lead to 2-0.
The statistics
Ajax Amsterdam had 10 shots (6 on target) to Atalanta's 6 (0). Ajax Amsterdam won 8 corners, Atalanta 9. Ajax Amsterdam produced 67 dangerous attacks to Atalanta's 47.
What the result means
The result lifts Ajax Amsterdam to 13th with 3 points, up from 25th. Atalanta drop from 4th to 15th on 3 points. Ajax Amsterdam have now scored in 11 consecutive matches. Atalanta's run of 3 matches with a goal comes to an end.
Next fixtures
Next up for Ajax Amsterdam: home to AZ Alkmaar on Saturday 31 October. Atalanta's next match is away to Fiorentina on 29 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
