Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 25' — IF Elfsborg took the lead: 0-1. Júlíus Magnússon scored it. 44' — AIK equalised: 1-1. Johan Hove scored it. Half time: 1-1, with IF Elfsborg applying more of the pressure.
85' — AIK completed the turnaround: 2-1. Sixten Gustafsson scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — IF Elfsborg equalised: 2-2. Rasmus Wikstrom scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to AIK. After 76' the momentum swung to IF Elfsborg. The match ended 2-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AIKDrawIF Elfsborg
Pre-match model estimate: AIK 37%, draw 24%, IF Elfsborg 39%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
AIKIF Elfsborg
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min9488
Last 15 min7868
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AIK win in 37% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and IF Elfsborg win 39%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 57%. About 10.5 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 12%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
AIK – IF Elfsborg match report
Updated:
Neither AIK nor IF Elfsborg could find a winner in a 2-2 draw. The half-time score was 1-1.
The story of the match
IF Elfsborg took the lead in the 25th minute: Júlíus Magnússon. AIK drew level at 1-1 on 44 minutes thanks to Johan Hove. Half-time: 1-1 between AIK and IF Elfsborg.
AIK took over after the 46th minute, pinning IF Elfsborg back. From the 76th minute the pressure shifted towards IF Elfsborg. Late on, in the 85th minute, AIK completed the turnaround at 2-1 through Sixten Gustafsson. IF Elfsborg drew level at 2-2 in the 90th minute: Rasmus Wikstrom.
The statistics
The shot count read 2-5, 1-3 on target. AIK won 2 corners, IF Elfsborg 10.
What the result means
The result lifts AIK to 7th with 38 points, up from 8th. IF Elfsborg stay 5th on 43 points. AIK have now scored in 7 consecutive matches. IF Elfsborg extend their unbeaten run to 4 matches.
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