Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: AEK Larnaca won 3-2.
Story
AEK Larnaca vs Akritas Chlorakas: the story of the match
9' — Akritas Chlorakas took the lead: 0-1. 36' — AEK Larnaca equalised: 1-1. Half time: 1-1.
73' — AEK Larnaca had a player sent off. 90' — Akritas Chlorakas went back in front: 1-2. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — AEK Larnaca equalised: 2-2. It came in the closing minutes. 102' — AEK Larnaca completed the turnaround: 3-2. It came in the closing minutes. AEK Larnaca won 3-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AEK Larnaca win in 88% of the simulated matches, 8% end level and Akritas Chlorakas win 4%. Average goals 4.2; the most likely score is 3-0 (11%); both teams score in 48%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Akritas Chlorakas took the lead on 9 minutes. After a review on 34 minutes, AEK Larnaca were given a penalty. AEK Larnaca drew level at 1-1 on 36 minutes. VAR disallowed a AEK Larnaca goal on 39 minutes. Half-time: 1-1 between AEK Larnaca and Akritas Chlorakas.
A red card against AEK Larnaca was overturned after a VAR review in the 73rd minute. AEK Larnaca had a player sent off on 73 minutes. Akritas Chlorakas went 2-1 up on 90 minutes. AEK Larnaca drew level at 2-2 on 90 minutes. VAR awarded AEK Larnaca a penalty in the 102nd minute.
Late on, in the 102nd minute, AEK Larnaca completed the turnaround at 3-2.
What the numbers say
AEK Larnaca had 5 shots (3 on target) to Akritas Chlorakas' 3 (3). Corners finished 6-0. Dangerous attacks: 161 for AEK Larnaca, 83 for Akritas Chlorakas.
The bigger picture
AEK Larnaca are now unbeaten in 4 matches. The wait for a win goes on for Akritas Chlorakas: 5 matches now.
Coming up
Next up for AEK Larnaca: away at Krasava Ypsonas on Saturday 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Cypriot Cup
