Pressure minute by minute, from attacks, dangerous attacks, shots and corners.
About this match
AD Carmopolis and Olimpico EC Itabaianinha drew 2-2 in Sergipano, Serie A2, Group A.
Match decisions & VAR
44'Penalty awardedAD CarmopolisDecision
73'Red cardOlimpico EC ItabaianinhaDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished ·
Last update:
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: 2-2.
Story
AD Carmopolis vs Olimpico EC Itabaianinha: the story of the match
Olimpico EC Itabaianinha started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 7' — Olimpico EC Itabaianinha took the lead: 0-1. 45' — AD Carmopolis equalised: 1-1. The goal came from the penalty spot. Half time: 1-1, with Olimpico EC Itabaianinha applying more of the pressure.
51' — Olimpico EC Itabaianinha went back in front: 1-2. 73' — Olimpico EC Itabaianinha had a player sent off. 90' — AD Carmopolis equalised: 2-2. It came in the closing minutes. After 76' the momentum swung to AD Carmopolis. The match ended 2-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AD CarmopolisDrawOlimpico EC Itabaianinha
Pre-match model estimate: AD Carmopolis 60%, draw 21%, Olimpico EC Itabaianinha 19%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
AD CarmopolisOlimpico EC Itabaianinha
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min8383
Last 15 min9762
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AD Carmopolis win in 60% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Olimpico EC Itabaianinha win 19%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 55%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
AD Carmopolis – Olimpico EC Itabaianinha match report
The early pressure came from Olimpico EC Itabaianinha, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Olimpico EC Itabaianinha took the lead on 7 minutes. AD Carmopolis drew level at 1-1 on 45 minutes. Half-time: 1-1 between AD Carmopolis and Olimpico EC Itabaianinha.
Just 6 minutes later (51') Olimpico EC Itabaianinha went 2-1 up. Olimpico EC Itabaianinha had a player sent off on 73 minutes. AD Carmopolis took over after the 76th minute, pinning Olimpico EC Itabaianinha back. Late on, in the 90th minute, AD Carmopolis drew level at 2-2.
The statistics
AD Carmopolis won 10 corners, Olimpico EC Itabaianinha 2. AD Carmopolis produced 264 dangerous attacks to Olimpico EC Itabaianinha's 198.
What the result means
AD Carmopolis' run of 3 clean sheets is over. Olimpico EC Itabaianinha have now scored in 4 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
