This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Aarhus GF win in 61% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and KF Egnatia win 18%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 55%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Aarhus GF – KF Egnatia match report
Updated:
Aarhus GF and KF Egnatia shared the points in a 1-1 draw in the UEFA Conference League. The half-time score was 0-1.
How the match unfolded
Eric Kahl saw a straight red card in the 3rd minute, leaving Aarhus GF short-handed. KF Egnatia took the lead on 13 minutes thanks to Ildi Gruda, set up by Daniel Claude Junior Adjessa. It was Aarhus GF 0-1 KF Egnatia at half-time.
Aarhus GF drew level at 1-1 on 50 minutes thanks to James Bogere.
The statistics
Aarhus GF had 2 shots (1 on target) to KF Egnatia's 5 (4). Aarhus GF won 5 corners, KF Egnatia 4. KF Egnatia produced 263 dangerous attacks to Aarhus GF's 134.
What it means
The result lifts Aarhus GF to 26th with 1 point, up from 29th. KF Egnatia drop from 19th to 20th on 2 points. KF Egnatia extend their unbeaten run to 5 matches.
