ThailandFootballSeason 26/27Thai League season simulation
Model estimate Buriram United — 60% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buriram United | 16 | 62 | 60% | 93% | 0% |
| Port FC | 16 | 57 | 22% | 75% | 0% |
| Bangkok United FC | 16 | 55.1 | 13% | 64% | 0% |
| Ratchaburi FC | 13 | 49.3 | 2% | 25% | <1% |
| Prachuap FC | 16 | 49.6 | 2% | 25% | <1% |
| BG Pathum United FC | 12 | 45.3 | <1% | 9% | 1% |
| Uthai Thani FC | 11 | 42.3 | <1% | 4% | 2% |
| Ayutthaya United FC | 16 | 41.6 | <1% | 2% | 3% |
| Lamphun Warrior FC | 11 | 39.7 | <1% | 1% | 6% |
| Chonburi FC | 7 | 35.4 | 0% | <1% | 19% |
| Sisaket United FC | 10 | 35.7 | 0% | <1% | 20% |
| Rayong FC | 8 | 35 | 0% | <1% | 25% |
| Chiangrai United FC | 5 | 34.3 | 0% | <1% | 26% |
| Sukhothai FC | 10 | 32.3 | 0% | <1% | 42% |
| Pattani FC | 7 | 29.8 | 0% | 0% | 58% |
| Rasi Salai United | 1 | 18.3 | 0% | 0% | 99% |
TitleChampions LeagueRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buriram United | 60 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Port FC | 22 | 31 | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Bangkok United FC | 13 | 25 | 26 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 3 | |||||||||
| Ratchaburi FC | 2 | 9 | 15 | 21 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||||
| Prachuap FC | 2 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||||
| BG Pathum United FC | 2 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Uthai Thani FC | 3 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Ayutthaya United FC | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| Lamphun Warrior FC | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| Chonburi FC | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | |||||
| Sisaket United FC | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | |||||
| Rayong FC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 1 | ||||
| Chiangrai United FC | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 1 | ||||
| Sukhothai FC | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 2 | ||||||
| Pattani FC | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 33 | 5 | |||||||
| Rasi Salai United | 2 | 8 | 88 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 178 remaining matches · data version keoa1p. 178 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.