FootballSeason 26/27Super Lig season simulation
Model estimate Galatasaray — 52% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 28 | 71.1 | 52% | 75% | 13% | 7% |
| Besiktas | 22 | 65 | 15% | 37% | 21% | 19% |
| Fenerbahce | 19 | 64.6 | 14% | 37% | 22% | 18% |
| Trabzonspor | 25 | 63.5 | 10% | 28% | 20% | 21% |
| Amedspor SK | 23 | 62.3 | 7% | 21% | 18% | 21% |
| Kasimpasa | 20 | 53.3 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | 17 | 51.6 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Kocaelispor | 19 | 48.5 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Goztepe SK | 15 | 47.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Corum FK | 16 | 47.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Genclerbirligi SK | 11 | 42.8 | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Alanyaspor | 12 | 39.9 | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Caykur Rizespor | 14 | 38.6 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| Erzurumspor FK | 14 | 36.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% |
| Gaziantep FK | 8 | 32.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Konyaspor | 8 | 31.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Samsunspor | 7 | 31.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Eyupspor | 3 | 20.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
TitleChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeaguexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 52 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 3 | |||||||||||||
| Besiktas | 15 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Fenerbahce | 14 | 22 | 22 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Trabzonspor | 10 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Amedspor SK | 7 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Kasimpasa | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| Istanbul Basaksehir | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Kocaelispor | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| Goztepe SK | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Corum FK | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Genclerbirligi SK | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Alanyaspor | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |||||||
| Caykur Rizespor | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 4 | |||||||
| Erzurumspor FK | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 7 | ||||||||
| Gaziantep FK | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 4 | |||||||||
| Konyaspor | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 23 | 24 | 6 | |||||||||
| Samsunspor | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 22 | 27 | 6 | |||||||||
| Eyupspor | 1 | 3 | 12 | 83 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 207 remaining matches · data version 65nif1. 207 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.