OmanFootballSeason 26/27FA Cup season simulation
Model estimate Bahla Club — 85% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahla Club | 10 | 25.2 | 85% |
| Oman Club | 7 | 18.6 | 9% |
| Dhofar SCSC | 7 | 16.5 | 3% |
| Sur SC | 7 | 15.8 | 2% |
| Al Nasr SCSC Salalah | 2 | 14.3 | 1% |
| Fanja SC | 5 | 14.5 | 1% |
| Samail SC | 2 | 9.5 | <1% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahla Club | 85 | 11 | 3 | ||||
| Oman Club | 9 | 37 | 24 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| Dhofar SCSC | 3 | 19 | 24 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 4 |
| Sur SC | 2 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 7 |
| Al Nasr SCSC Salalah | 1 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 11 |
| Fanja SC | 8 | 14 | 20 | 24 | 22 | 12 | |
| Samail SC | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 65 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 27 remaining matches · data version tzxvjo. 25 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.