NorwayFootballSeason 2026Eliteserien season simulation
Model estimate Viking FK — 73% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking FK | 59 | 70.5 | 73% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FK Bodo/Glimt | 56 | 67.5 | 27% | 100% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Molde FK | 43 | 51.7 | 0% | <1% | 47% | 29% | 0% | 0% |
| Rosenborg | 40 | 51.1 | 0% | 0% | 38% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| Tromso IL | 40 | 48.3 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 20% | 0% | 0% |
| Lillestrom SK | 39 | 48.3 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 18% | 0% | 0% |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 31 | 39.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SK Brann | 29 | 37.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Valerenga | 29 | 36.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | <1% |
| Fredrikstad FK | 29 | 36.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| KFUM Oslo | 30 | 36.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Sandefjord Fotball | 24 | 31.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18% | 9% |
| HamKam | 26 | 32.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21% | 7% |
| Aalesunds FK | 24 | 30.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 17% |
| Kristiansund BK | 20 | 26.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16% | 75% |
| IK Start | 19 | 24.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 91% |
TitleChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking FK | 73 | 27 | ||||||||||||||
| FK Bodo/Glimt | 27 | 73 | ||||||||||||||
| Molde FK | 47 | 29 | 17 | 6 | ||||||||||||
| Rosenborg | 38 | 33 | 21 | 9 | ||||||||||||
| Tromso IL | 8 | 20 | 33 | 37 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Lillestrom SK | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | 4 | |||||||||||
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 4 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||
| SK Brann | 2 | 24 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||||||||
| Valerenga | 10 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||
| Fredrikstad FK | 11 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||||||||
| KFUM Oslo | 8 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||
| Sandefjord Fotball | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 8 | 1 | |||||||
| HamKam | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 27 | 21 | 7 | ||||||||
| Aalesunds FK | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 33 | 15 | 3 | ||||||||
| Kristiansund BK | 2 | 6 | 16 | 44 | 30 | |||||||||||
| IK Start | 2 | 6 | 26 | 66 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 48 remaining matches · data version cv0w9z. 40 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.