FootballSeason 26/27NB I season simulation
Model estimate Ferencvarosi TC — 88% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Next round | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC | 23 | 45.4 | 88% | 99% | 0% |
| Gyor ETO FC | 23 | 37.6 | 6% | 68% | 0% |
| Puskas Academy | 24 | 36.7 | 4% | 53% | <1% |
| Paksi SE | 20 | 34.5 | 1% | 36% | <1% |
| Debreceni VSC | 22 | 34.1 | 1% | 31% | <1% |
| Ujpest FC | 18 | 29.5 | <1% | 6% | 2% |
| Vasas SC | 16 | 29.3 | <1% | 6% | 3% |
| Kispest Honved FC | 14 | 23.7 | 0% | <1% | 30% |
| Zalaegerszeg TE | 13 | 23.6 | 0% | <1% | 31% |
| Kisvarda Master Good | 12 | 22.2 | 0% | <1% | 41% |
| Nyiregyhaza Spartacus | 12 | 22.4 | 0% | <1% | 45% |
| MTK Budapest FC | 13 | 22.1 | 0% | <1% | 49% |
TitleNext roundRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC | 88 | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| Gyor ETO FC | 6 | 38 | 25 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| Puskas Academy | 4 | 24 | 26 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 3 | |||||
| Paksi SE | 1 | 14 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| Debreceni VSC | 1 | 12 | 19 | 22 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| Ujpest FC | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 24 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Vasas SC | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 23 | 22 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Kispest Honved FC | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 13 | ||||
| Zalaegerszeg TE | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 14 | ||||
| Kisvarda Master Good | 2 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 21 | |||||
| Nyiregyhaza Spartacus | 2 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 25 | |||||
| MTK Budapest FC | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 27 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 55 remaining matches · data version 1rlo0g. 55 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.